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Updated September 05, 2013 06:55:07

This election has heard no end of debate about Australia's budget deficit; meanwhile, an environmental disaster looms that will cause us much more financial pain, writes Mike Steketee.

Victoria and other parts of eastern Australia, including Sydney, have just recorded their warmest winter on record.

Was that evidence of climate change, Barrie Cassidy asked Tony Abbott on the ABC's Insiders on Sunday. 'It is evidence of the variability in our weather,' replied the person on the brink of becoming prime minister.

It was an answer at the same time unexceptional and revealing.

Of course, Abbott is correct. Weather records are being broken all the time. For centuries Australia has been a land of drought and flooding rains.

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But Abbott also could have given a different answer, along the lines that, whether or not specific record-breaking events were the result of human impact on the climate, they were occurring more frequently, particularly those associated with high temperatures, and that this was in line with the predictions of the overwhelming majority of climate scientists.

Here's another record: for the whole of Australia, temperatures for the 12 months to the end of last month were the highest since reliable records were first kept 103 years ago.

Melbourne University Professor of Climate Science David Karoly concludes from research he conducted with postdoctoral research fellow Sophie Lewis that the probability of this occurring due to natural climate variations alone is extremely low. They add that it is notable that it happened this time under a neutral weather pattern - that is, without an El Nino effect driving up temperatures.

What Abbott did go on to say on Sunday was that he thought climate change was real, that humanity made a contribution and that he favoured strong and effective action against it. So perhaps in his reluctance to link record-breaking temperatures with climate change, he merely was giving comfort to the sizeable rump of global warming doubters in his party.

But the suspicion that the sceptic still lurks within grew stronger with an interview with Michelle Grattan for The Conversation. People were less anxious about climate change for three reasons, he said:

First I think they're more conscious of the fact that the argument among the experts is not quite the one way street that it might have seemed four or five years [ago].

The other reasons were that the drought had broken and that there was no international consensus on how to deal with climate change. So, he could have added, we can all relax for a while.

Election campaigns are ill-suited to dealing with long-term issues and there is nothing quite as long term as climate change. Abbott proved the point this week in ironic fashion by firing off a few more volleys at his favourite political target - the carbon tax (a term he extends to Labor's emissions trading scheme).

But you can't accuse him of not thinking ahead: not only does he declare this election to be a referendum on the carbon tax, but he is already trying to batter the future opposition into submission by threatening to fight the next election on the same issue if it does not fall in line and vote in the Senate for abolition.

That highlights how far we have retreated since the start of the first Rudd government six years ago. Then there was bipartisan support for an emissions trading scheme, with a report to the Howard government chaired by the head of the prime minister's department Peter Shergold saying that moving on the issue, even without a global agreement, would greatly reduce the ultimate cost to Australia of adjusting to a low carbon economy.

Since then, we have had Abbott reversing his support for emissions trading to enable him to defeat Malcolm Turnbull for the Liberal leadership, Kevin Rudd going weak at the knees over 'the great moral challenge of our time' and dumping his ETS, and now Abbott pledging to abolish the carbon tax and the ETS which is due to succeed it.

In their place will be the Coalition's direct action plan, which uses money raised from taxpayers rather than carbon polluters to buy reductions in emissions. But fear not: an Abbott government will cap spending at $3.2 billion over four years. If the money runs out, it will drop one of the last vestiges of bipartisanship - reducing emissions by 5 per cent from 2000 levels by 2020.

Abbott says he is very confident the $3.2b will do the job but at least two studies beg to differ - one for the Climate Institute saying it would need at least another $4 billion to meet the target and prevent emissions rising by 9 per cent; the other for WWF putting the shortfall substantially higher.

If Australia does manage to achieve the 5 per cent reduction, it will have less to do with the modest impact of the carbon tax or with direct action and more with the upgrading of the electricity networks in recent times. That has been responsible for most of the sharp increase in electricity prices and the consequent fall in demand. In turn, that has led to the 7 per cent drop in emissions from the sector about which Rudd has been boasting.

It proves one point: that a price signal can work if it is strong enough.

While Australia prepares to beat a retreat on climate change action, most of the rest of the world has been moving forward, albeit with sometimes small and halting steps and without an overarching international agreement.

At the same time, the evidence of the effects of global warming becomes steadily stronger. A leaked draft of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's latest report, compiled by hundreds of scientists and due to be released within weeks, concludes that there is 95 per cent certainty that human activity has been the main cause of global warming since the 1950s - up from 90 per cent in its last report in 2007 and 66 per cent in 2001.

It increases projections of sea level rise by the end of the century to between 29cms and 82cms, compared to 18cms to 59cms in the last report. And it has widened the range of temperature rises by 2100 from less than 1C - based on a scenario of radical government action - to almost 5C.

This election has heard no end of debate about Australia's budget deficit but little about the environmental deficit that we are accumulating and that will take much longer to pay off.

Mike Steketee is a freelance journalist and former national affairs editor for The Australian. View his full profile here.

More on politics:

• Annabel Crabb: Call yourself a Christian: private faith, public politics
• David Hardaker: The cynical politician and the lost tribe
• Greg Jericho: Policy costings about more than the final figures
• Sandy Grant: How could a Christian PM call the Bible pro-slavery?

Topics:climate-change, abbott-tony, federal-elections

First posted September 05, 2013 06:50:51

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A week from a Redneck's life: Deer Diary: Munday: Well, we crash-landed that UFO in the desert and Bubba says he wants to go home. Heck, I don't blame him 'cause there ain't no place like Hickston. But according to my map, we're gonna have to blast our way through jack o' lope farms and a riverboat as well as a brothel (Bubba can't wait) 'fore we get home again. Toosday: Met new folks like Daisy Mae (she's purty). Bikers, pigs, cows and jack o' lopes. I think I even saw the King at the Slurp n' Burp. Winsday: Yeehaw! Got to joyride in a Swamp Buggy and a motorcycle that were both armed to the teeth. I hope those peoples I ran over will be alrite. I still got a darn jack 'o lope stuck in the grill though. Thersday: New ways to destroy stuff! I found over 10 weapons like a crossbow that shoots dynamite-loaded chickens and a slingblade. Mmmm-Hmm! Fri-day: Sure am hungry! I just need some good ol' redneck powerups like pork rinds, cow pies and some of my granpappy's moonshine! Saterday: Boy I sure so like those toe tapping tunes by that good ol' boy Mojo Nixon. Sunday: Heck! With all the new places we been, I sure wish my kinfolk could've come along for the ride! Want to experience more than just a week? Then take a dip into the Redneck's world of floating whiskey and widespread pork rinds. The crazy adventure continues through Redneck Rampage, Redneck Rampage Rides Again: Arkansas and Redneck Rampage: Suckin' Grits on Route 66. Now all three games bundled together.

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